📩 Georgians take the streets once again

DEAR READER,

There’s insane footage coming out of Georgia. This past weekend saw riot police clashing with and beating demonstrators in an attempt to break up the protest. People have been fighting back with fireworks and barricades, refusing to back down. Some of the protesters even took over the public broadcaster, to reach the broader audience with their demands. The unrest erupted after the Prime Minister’s November 28 announcement suspending EU accession talks, which reignited protests among citizens who want closer ties with Europe.

Georgians have been in a turbulent situationship with protests for the past two years. But today's demonstrations feel far more decisive than those in 2023 or even as recently as April 2024, when the government reintroduced a Russian-style foreign agents law. So, why are the protests back? After securing almost 54% in the elections — marred by allegations of voter intimidation and fraud — the ruling Georgian Dream party grew increasingly confrontational with domestic opposition and Western partners. It was clear that the ruling party didn’t have enough public support to receive so many votes, but somehow they managed to pull ahead. President Salome Zourabichvili declared the elections unconstitutional and called for new, fair elections, but her appeals were ignored. Instead, Georgian Dream pressed ahead with parliamentary proceedings.

Post-election protests struggled to gain momentum despite widespread discontent, and it seemed that it could fade into a stalemate. That is, until Georgian Dream made a blunder — or a calculated gamble — by halting all EU accession talks until 2028, and essentially going against the constitution. The announcement came right after a European Parliament resolution calling for free and fair elections. This backfired (quite literally) pretty bad. More on that in the expert opinion section.

On a different note, we’re hosting a discussion on EU enlargement in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine at the Harriman Institute at Columbia University. Join us to meet Adam Reichardt, Editor-in-Chief of New Eastern Europe, and Alexandra Karppi, co-host of Talk Eastern Europe podcast. Click the link for details!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

Since its election back in 2012 the Georgian Dream has claimed that its main foreign policy goal is staying committed to the European path. However, this path has been mired in contradictions. From gradual state capture and controversial statements during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, to accusing Western partners of attempting to spark war in Georgia, promoting "Global War Party" conspiracies, and introducing legislation such as the Foreign Agents and Anti-LGBT Laws, the party’s actions tell a different story.

In a broader context, stopping the accession talks was not a dramatic change, nor a sudden deviation. Looking at the long-planned strategy of Georgian Dream’s political agenda, it’s clear that the party has been actively carrying out this shift at least since 2023, with the introduction of the controversial Foreign Agents Bill. Now, with the move to stop EU accession talks as it was announced by the prime minister, the Georgian Dream has abandoned even the pretense of alignment with the West.

So, what is at stake?

One scenario is the transformation of Georgia into a Belarus-like autocracy. Such a path would see the government crush the ongoing protests through relentless crackdowns, doubling down on authoritarian control. Under this scenario, Georgia would pivot fully towards Russia, abandoning its European integration aspirations and enduring economic sanctions and international isolation. The country, however, cannot afford this — considering its fragile economic and geopolitical situation, with the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The ruling elite might shield itself from the isolation with ties to Moscow. However, ordinary Georgians would suffer from this the most, potentially leading to mass emigration. For the European Union and the broader Western partners, such a path would represent a grave failure of foreign policy, undermining their influence in the region, and emboldening not only Russia, but also other states with autocratic ambitions.

On the other hand, the protest could lead to new elections and a reversal of the autocratic policies. Should the pro-democratic opposition, potentially led by President Salome Zourabichvili, take control, they could undo the damage done by the Georgian Dream, and re-establish ties with the EU, and especially the US, which has just suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia.

Zourabichvili has announced the formation of a permanent council with four opposition parties to consolidate the political process and engage with the Western partners. She also remarked that spontaneous protest is more effective at countering Georgia's powerful internal security forces. Meanwhile, hundreds of state employees have condemned the actions of the Georgian Dream and the riot police. A number of Georgian ambassadors abroad have resigned, signaling cracks within the system. These cracks are small, but their emergence is truly without precedent.

Zourabichvili has appealed the October 26 election results to the Constitutional Court, citing violations of voting secrecy and universality. Whether the court will schedule a hearing remains uncertain, but its decision could reshape the developments and return the country to the constitutional framework. A positive decision could signal something else — a rare concession from the ruling party. However, it’s hard to see why the Georgian Dream would choose to back down at this point. Zourabichvili’s term is nearing its end, but efforts to oust her could start another wave of protests. She has stated that the current illegitimate parliament has no authority to elect a successor, thus saying that her term remains active until new elections are held.

What can the Western partners do? Statements of concern alone will not suffice. Concrete measures are needed. Financial aid has already been suspended. High Representative of the European Union, Kaja Kallas, has called for direct consequences for Georgian Dream’s actions. These could include sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders responsible for the democratic backslide, non-recognition of the government, and support for opposition forces.

This protest feels different, and Georgians are learning how to defend European aspirations. As events unfold, the world's attention must stay fixed on Georgia.

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor at Brief Eastern Europe

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