📩 From ballot to ballot

DEAR READER,

Last week, Russia launched an IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missile) in Ukraine. On top of this, Vladimir Putin in his special statement, said that the war was “escalating to a global conflict”. This was in response to the US and UK permitting Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range missiles against targets on Russian territory, although this is limited to the Kursk region. Putin has warned that this gives Russia grounds for retaliatory strikes on countries supplying Ukraine. But in reality this probably means more covert ops and sabotage in Western nations instead of missiles flying over. Case in point: Poland has seen a string of incidents that may be linked to Russia, including the fire at the biggest shopping centre in Warsaw.

In this week’s expert opinion, we are going to Romania, which is in the middle of an intense election period. In a surprising turn during the first round of the presidential election, Călin Georgescu, a pro-Russian independent candidate, is leading with 22% of the vote. Parliamentary elections follow this Sunday, and two weeks later, Romanians will return to the polls for the second round of the presidential vote. Within this election marathon Georgescu’s rise is concerning, especially with his populist rhetoric. We asked Eugen Stancu, editor at LaPunkt to give us a deep dive on the matter.

Lastly, we have just published our latest issue. Donald Trump is returning to the White House, signaling major changes ahead that will affect geopolitics, including in Central and Eastern Europe. Trump is often described as “unpredictable”, especially when it comes to foreign policy. This unpredictability mirrors the core theme of this issue: uncertainty. So make sure to check out ‘Age of uncertainty’ on our website!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editor

The elections in Romania mark the conclusion of an intense electoral year that has bundled all major polls — European elections, local, presidential, and parliamentary — into a single calendar. The first round of the presidential election on November 24, will be followed closely by the parliamentary elections on December 1 and the second round of the presidential race on December 8. These elections come at a pivotal moment for Romania, both domestically and internationally, as the country faces complex internal and external challenges.

The elections occur amid a rising populist sentiment in Romanian society, a trend that could jeopardize Romania’s ability to effectively engage in European affairs. The political forces promoting populism, often with pro-Russian undertones, are gaining traction across Europe, raising concerns that Romania could lose credibility and face marginalization in European politics. The geopolitical backdrop also includes the ongoing war in Ukraine, uncertainty in transatlantic relations especially after Donald Trump’s election in the USA, and broader global instability. In this context, Romania’s next president will have to maintain the country’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory while addressing these pressing international dynamics.

Romania is at the end of Klaus Iohannis’ decade-long presidency, a period marked by criticism of his disengagement from public life, despite his consistent Euro-Atlantic stance. The race to succeed him included 13 candidates, but the contest narrowed to five viable contenders: Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), George Simion, representing the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR), Nicolae Ciucă of the National Liberal Party (PNL), and Mircea Geoană, a former NATO Deputy Secretary General. The PSD candidate was considered to be well-positioned to secure a spot in the second round due to the party’s extensive grassroots network. However, after the full count, the result came as a shock. In first place is Călin Georgescu with 22.9% of the votes, a hard-right (anti-Western & pro-Russian) candidate with no party backing, whose campaign was conducted almost exclusively on TikTok. In second place is the USR candidate with 19.16%. For the first time since the revolution, the Social Democrat candidate has failed to make it to the second round.

The second round of presidential election is in two weeks, but now the real stakes are at the parliamentary election on Sunday, December 1. Given the result of the first presidential round, it is very difficult to predict anything. The parliamentary election has been overshadowed by the high-profile presidential race. However, its significance is important, as it will shape the composition of the new government and influence the country’s stability. Political discourse around this election has been minimal, with little public engagement beyond social media. However, the parliamentary election outcome will determine the prime minister and the legislative majority, which will be crucial for enacting policies to address Romania’s pressing challenges.

Within this context, post-election Romania faces urgent fiscal reforms, including reducing its budget deficit, a commitment made to the European Union. These measures are expected to involve unpopular tax increases and spending adjustments, but during the election campaigns politicians have largely avoided discussing these realities.

These elections will set Romania’s trajectory for years to come. A credible and capable leadership is crucial not only for internal governance but also for representing Romania effectively on the international stage. The next president and government must restore public trust, enhance institutional functionality, and ensure Romania remains a strong player within NATO and the EU.

More than ever, the question is whether Romania will maintain and strengthen its Euro-Atlantic direction or align itself with Moscow.

— Eugen Stancu, Editor at LaPunkt

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