📩 Europe needs a new social contract

DEAR READER, 

Today marks one year since the brutal Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, which dramatically reshaped the global security landscape and impacted thousands of lives. This changing security environment was a key focus of last week’s Warsaw Security Forum, which we attended. The discussions centered on Eastern Europe’s challenges. In this week’s brief, we will be sharing our insights from the forum.

What struck me were the words of Tytti Tuppurainen, a Member of the Finnish Parliament, who remarked during the Warsaw Security Forum: “We need to explain why we invest in defense, just like we invest in welfare. We need a new social contract.” With growing challenges, Europe must adopt a whole-of-society approach to security. What makes it difficult is that the best practices might be country-specific – what works in Estonia might not work in Germany.

Another major theme was the future of democracy, particularly in the context of pivotal elections in Moldova, Georgia, and Bulgaria. These elections could significantly impact the rise of far-right movements, and the survival of progressive democratic governments. During the forum, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili remained confident in her country’s resilience, saying that Georgian people understand that bowing down to Russia doesn’t equal peace. By the way, the ruling party has just restarted the impeachment process against President Zourabichvili for this visit (among others) abroad, citing that it was "unauthorized." So the stakes couldn’t be higher, as October is set to be a decisive month for these nations. We will be covering each of these elections in the upcoming editions, so stay tuned!

In addition to the other developments in the region, you will find some academic and professional opportunities we’ve heard about, so be sure to check those out as well!

Enjoy reading this week’s “brief”!

Last week, the largest gathering of security experts, military officials, civil society, political leaders and media took place during the 11th edition of the Warsaw Security Forum. The main theme of the forum was “Thinking Europe anew: Forging a Vision for Future European Security” and focused largely on the current security challenges facing Europe and the region. Obviously, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a part of nearly every discussion that took place during the two-day forum. The date of the forum – October 1st and 2nd – was also symbolic as it coincided with the first days of the new NATO Secretary General – Mark Rutte.

With almost 2,500 participants taking part in this year’s edition it is no surprise that Poland can attract such a large gathering on security-related issues. Since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Poland has massively increased its investment into security — this year spending 4.2% of its GDP on defence, while projected to spend 4.7% of GDP on defence in 2025. This would make Poland one of NATO’s top defence spenders.

Others in the region are also following suit. Hanno Pevkur, the Estonian defence minister, for example, presented his country’s new defence security tax which he called 2+2+2. In essence they are raising VAT by 2% by mid-2025, increasing income tax by 2% in 2026 along with a 2% additional tax on corporate profits. The revenue will be used to invest in the country’s defence, but also infrastructure which is crucial for the ability to transport military assets, for example. The minister admitted that the government was met with limited resistance on the moves and questioned whether other European countries’ societies would be so accepting of such a sacrifice.

In fact, the variation on threat perception was an overarching theme that came up in many of the high-level discussions. It is evident that the Baltic countries and Poland feel directly threatened, hence their investments in defence spending, but also in other tangible preparatory activities. The same can be said about the newest members of NATO, Sweden and Finland, who themselves feel the threat from the East rather strongly. Officials from both countries outlined their civil defence programmes, how they have been preparing their societies, and their approach to the so-called “total defence”. Out of all the countries in NATO, Finland seems the most prepared. The country has an active system of civil defence shelters (50,500 of them!) with approximately enough space to shelter 4.8 million people (Finland has a total population of 5.5 million). Poland is also developing a new law on civil defence aimed at increasing social resilience, including towards hybrid attacks and disinformation.

One key conclusion from the high-level discussions is a belief that the future of peace and stability in Europe must come with Ukraine’s victory in its defence against Russian aggression. However, there was less consensus on how to achieve this outcome. A common expression we heard was that “We have to do more” for Ukraine. But there were little specifics on what “more” actually means. Some voices were more critical of Western support saying that, for example, by not allowing Ukraine to use western weapons to strike deep inside Russia is akin to Ukraine fighting with one arm tied behind its back.

Though it certainly seems that this permission to strike deep in Russia will eventually come, the topic was also a reminder of the sensitivity towards the Kremlin’s so-called “red lines”. The question, however, remains, whether these red lines are actually self-imposed (by the West on itself) and would have serious consequences if crossed. There is an obvious fear of escalation with Russia, which we hear from many Western capitals. Yet at the same time it is hard to imagine a Ukrainian victory without greater military and financial support from the West. Some believe NATO membership for Ukraine, now, would help solve this impasse. But at the same time we know there are NATO members who would not support such a move — including Hungary and Slovakia.

In the end, the West faces serious challenges when it comes to security in the region with many possible scenarios playing out. Nevertheless, it does not seem that EU countries are willing to take their chances — especially those on the so-called Eastern Flank. With massive investments in defence and overall preparations, there is a sense we certainly are living in a pre-war era — as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned not too long ago. This was only emphasized even further just last Friday during the opening of the academic year of the Academy of Land Forces in Wrocław when the Polish Chief of the General Staff Wiesław Kukuła said “Everything indicates that we are the generation which will stand with a weapon in our hand, in defence of our state.”

To put it another way, security in Europe today is based on the old adage: Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. One thing we learned last week is that there is a lot of preparation for the worst, and less hope for the best. But it does not mean that we have to give up on being optimistic. As many experts have said — it is a Ukrainian victory which still is the best path for a new peace and security architecture in Europe. To convince all of the Allies of this strategy is just one more challenge we face here in the region.