📩 Everything you need to know about Moldovan elections

DEAR READER,

This past weekend, I attended a UEFA Nations League match between Ukraine and Georgia. For those unfamiliar, the Nations League is a football competition that replaces traditional international friendlies and offers smaller teams a chance to qualify for major tournaments like the Euros. So this is a big opportunity for a team like Georgia. Naturally, I hopped on a 6-hour train to Poznan to watch Ukraine, playing as the home side (they've been using Polish stadiums since 2022), win 1-0 against Georgia.

The match was particularly interesting given the complex relationship between Ukraine and Georgia. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Georgian public has been a strong supporter, especially through military personnel. Over 60 Georgian volunteers have lost their lives in the conflict, the highest number among foreign fighters. Georgians sympathize with Ukraine, having faced Russian aggression themselves in 2008, creating a sense of solidarity between the two nations. This solidarity has been evident in pro-Ukrainian protests and hosting Ukrainian refugees at the start of the war, among other things.

However, despite this public support, relations between the two governments have been strained. Due to the Georgian government’s decision not to join the international sanctions against Russia, stating that it would hurt the country much more than Russia, Ukraine recalled its ambassador from Tbilisi in 2022 and has yet to appoint a replacement. The Georgian government has accused Ukraine of trying to pull them into the conflict, a claim amplified by Russian propaganda. Recently, the ruling party in Georgia stirred further controversy by using images of war-torn Ukraine in pre-election ads in contrast with a peaceful Georgia, suggesting that voting for their party would prevent war. Despite these tensions, the football match itself was peaceful, with fans chanting “Putin Khu*lo” in unison, and the Ukrainian side displaying a banner with Georgia's motto: “Strength is in Unity”, written in both languages.

While this group stage match carried some political undertones, as post-Soviet politicians often say, we should try to draw a line between politics and sports. Let’s hope that despite the tensions between the governments, the people of both nations continue to share their solidarity amid the war.

In this week’s expert opinion, we asked Irina Percemli, the editor at European Studies Review, to provide an in-depth analysis of the upcoming Moldovan presidential elections. This election is particularly important because it also serves as a referendum on whether Moldova should join the EU. So, there is a lot at stake. Additionally, for more context, you can read the interview with Ion Ceban, the mayor of Chișinău on our website.

Enjoy reading this week’s "brief"!

— Giorgi Beroshvili, Editorial Assistant

On October 20th, Moldovans will have to make two important choices: one for the president, and the other in the constitutional referendum on European integration. With Moldova’s EU accession negotiations open since June 2024, war still raging in neighbouring Ukraine and more and more post-Soviet countries embracing Russian-style authoritarianism, these elections are crucial for the future of the country.

This year, there are 11 presidential candidates. As always, the electoral campaigns are focused not so much on internal politics but on the geopolitical vector of the country. Incumbent president Maia Sandu, with her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), aims to solidify her party’s pro-European agenda, presenting her leadership as a key achievement in advancing Moldova's European integration. In stark contrast, the divided pro-Russian opposition is determined to undermine her campaign. Interestingly, the leader of the Socialist Party (PSRM) Igor Dodon — the only pro-Russian opponent with matching political weight — opted not to compete, instead endorsing the “apolitical” unified opposition candidate Alexander Stoianoglo. Stoianoglo is a former general prosecutor who stalled anti-corruption reforms and was involved in the “Russian Laundromat” — one of the biggest money laundering schemes in the post-Soviet space. Whether it was a calculated effort or a simple lack of agreement, other opposition representatives did not support Stoianoglo and put forward their own candidates.

Thus, we have a vast array of additional candidates with none of them polling more than 6%. The only exception is Renato Usatii, the former mayor of Balti and charismatic leader of "Our Party". Meanwhile, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, despite his 15-year prison sentence for the biggest bank fraud in Moldovan history (the so-called “theft of a billion”), maintains considerable influence with 21% popular support and is reportedly backing several candidates. Even though Shor's party was declared unconstitutional, he continues to significantly influence Moldovan politics while operating from Russia.

The latest opinion poll indicates Sandu is likely to win, with 36.1% of the population inclined to vote for her. In comparison, her biggest opponents Stoianoglo and Usatii are projected to have only 10.1% and 7.5% respectively. However, the number of undecided voters is quite high (21.9%). Thus, things might take an unexpected turn in the second round of voting, depending on the opposition’s ability to unite or Shor’s electoral manipulations financed by his backers in the Kremlin. EU negotiations will likely continue should Sandu emerge victorious, while a Stoianoglo or Usatii victory could lead to a dramatic pivot towards Russia.

While it seems that the presidential elections’ outcome will be more or less unsurprising, a much more important battleground is the constitutional referendum on EU integration, running alongside the election. It requires a one-third voter turnout and a simple majority to succeed. With polls showing 50-60% support for EU integration, prospects appear favourable. This is why the opposition and Russian disinformation are focused specifically on suppressing turnout, trying to link EU integration with PAS party failures. A referendum failure could significantly damage Moldova's European aspirations and strengthen pro-Russian opposition narratives.

All things considered, these elections are primarily a springboard for the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025. With multiple crises and growing public criticism of the pro-Western government, the Russian-backed opposition will use these elections to amplify dissent and undermine the legitimacy of Sandu, PAS, and Moldova's European path. The moment thus represents a crucial juncture for the nation, with implications extending far beyond.

— Irina Percemli, Editor at European Studies Review

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